Carmignac Sécurité

In the US, the labour market continues to show strength, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.0%. At the same time, inflation has risen to 3.0% year-on-year.

Politically, Trump has begun to implement his programme, starting with an increase in tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China and Europe, which is expected to come into effect in the coming months.

Talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine have also begun, with Trump engaging in negotiations with Russia for the first time since the war began in 2022.

In the eurozone, inflation rose in January on the back of higher energy prices, while core inflation remained stable at 2.7%. Growth momentum improved slightly, with Q4 GDP revised up to 0.0% and the composite PMI rising to 50.3 thanks to a recovery in the manufacturing component.

Interest rates fell in February, particularly in the US, where the 10-year rate fell by -33 bp thanks to Donald Trump's announcements and leading indicators pointing to a slowdown, while the German 10-year rate fell more moderately by -5 bp.

The Fund posted a positive performance, outperforming its benchmark indicator over the month.

On the interest rate side, our long positions in the short end of US debt made a positive contribution as US statistics point to an economic slowdown.

The portfolio also benefited from its credit carry strategies, with positive contributions from our financial sector and energy bonds.

Finally, the portfolio continues to benefit from our exposure to money market instruments and, to a lesser extent this month, from our selection of collateralised loan obligations (CLOs).

The relative resilience of the economy, thanks to consumption that remains robust and inflation that continues to fall gradually, should enable the ECB and, to a lesser extent, the US Federal Reserve to gradually continue their monetary easing.

However, given the risks associated with tariffs, European defence spending budgets and geopolitical issues in a context of increasingly tense valuations in certain markets, the portfolio maintains a balanced positioning with a modified duration that has remained stable at around 2.2 over the period:

On the one hand, a significant allocation to credit, mainly invested in short-term, highly rated corporate bonds and CLOs, which offer an attractive source of carry and a reduced beta in relation to market volatility.

On the other hand, a cautious position on German rates, with the market pricing in a scenario of just under three ECB rate cuts in 2025 in a context of fiscal expansion in Europe.

We are also maintaining protection on the credit market (iTraxx Xover), with markets trading at tight levels in an uncertain geopolitical context.

Finally, we have allocated part of the portfolio to money market instruments, which are an attractive source of carry with limited risk.