Investing for tomorrow
Financial markets can fall fast, and they can bounce back fast too, as the Covid-19 outbreak strikingly illustrated. Thinking long term can help investors limit the impact of such changes on their holdings – and even take advantage of them – provided they succeed in identifying the major growth trends taking shape.
After the crisis we’ve just been through, somewhere between the extremes of “Nothing new under the sun” and “Nothing will ever be the same again”, we sense a more subtle reality emerging.
The liquidity bubble created by central banks, the technological revolution under way and changing consumer spending patterns have ramifications that all require rigorous analysis if we are to be able to turn them into exciting investment opportunities.
It’s a good feeling for a fund manager overwhelmed by European inertia to get to observe economic growth from up close. It’s still out there; I’ve seen it
Edouard Carmignac, on his return from a trip to China in September 1993.
Our asset management style rests precisely on that vision. Our sole purpose is to leverage our long-term convictions so that our clients can build up their wealth over time.
Developing a long-term investment solution requires a rigorous process that offers flexibility and diversification across three performance drivers: equities, fixed income and currencies. It also means crafting a core portfolio narrowed down to long-term strategic winners, while keeping an eye out for pockets of instability no less than for tactical opportunities.
Carmignac Patrimoine combines top-down and bottom-up analyses and our approach is benchmark agnostic. The result is that we are both highly responsive and capable of tracking down attractive long-term opportunities.
EQUITIES
Our core equity portfolio revolves around three key long-term themes: the connected consumer, digitisation, and demographic and social changes, which in our view hold major long-term potential.
Using a rigorous stock-picking process, we identify the business models related to those themes that can generate powerful growth in profitability over a five- or ten-year span, irrespective of the business cycle.
Example: e-commerce
It took e-commerce 10 years to go from 6% to 16% of total retail sales in the US, but just 8 weeks to go from 16% to circa 27%. The current crisis has amply validated our long-term exposure to this market segment and to offshoots like fintech and digital advertising.
FIXED INCOME
In today’s highly leveraged environment, we have identified three key performance drivers for the coming months. In corporate bonds, we focus on names that have been strongly affected by the Covid-19 crisis, as they may offer attractive entry points. In currencies, we have turned away from the dollar to favour other developed-world and emerging-world currencies. In government bonds, we actively manage modified duration to deal with a climate marked by rising uncertainty and spikes in volatility.
Example: European banks
Our allocation to European bank debt dates back to 2012, as banks in the region were re-regulated and forced to de-leverage and de-risk their balance sheets. Since then, European banks have slowly but surely increased their capital ratios, while their balance sheets have shrunk. As a result, financial corporate bonds have seen significant spread compression across the capital structure.
The Fund aims to outperform its reference indicator1 over 3 years.
Source: Carmignac, 01/07/2020. This article is an advertising document. This article may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the management company. This document does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). Carmignac Patrimoine is a common fund in contractual form (FCP) conforming to the UCITS Directive under French law. Access to the Fund may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or countries. The Fund is not registered in North America, in South America, in Asia nor is it registered in Japan. The Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Fund has not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Fund may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a "U.S. person", according to the definition of the US Regulation S and/or FATCA. The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital. The risks and fees are described in the KIID (Key Investor Information Document). The Fund's prospectus, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com, or upon request to the Management Company. The KIID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. ● Switzerland: The Fund’s respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.ch, or through our representative in Switzerland, CACEIS (Switzerland) S.A., Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon. The paying agent is CACEIS Bank, Paris, succursale de Nyon/Suisse, Route de Signy 35, 1260 Nyon. ● United Kingdom: The Funds’ respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.co.uk, or upon request to the Management Company, or for the French Funds, at the offices of the Facilities Agent at BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES SERVICES, operating through its branch in London: 55 Moorgate, London EC2R. This material was prepared by Carmignac Gestion and/or Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg and is being distributed in the UK by Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg UK Branch (Registered in England and Wales with number FC031103, CSSF agreement of 10/06/2013).